Study finds federal Medicaid cuts will drop 114,300 people and cost $8.3 billion in CT

Source: State-Level Impacts of Key Medicaid Provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, RAND, 2/26/2026

A new study by RAND researchers details the likely Medicaid impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill (HR-1) by state. Connecticut stands to lose $8.3 billion in Medicaid funding, and 114,300 state residents will lose coverage. The report parses the impact by each provision of HR-1 over the next ten years. Nationally, 7.6 million Americans will lose health coverage and state Medicaid budgets will lose $664 billion. Not every HR-1 provision applies to each state, including Connecticut.

Work requirements are by far, the largest contributor to both coverage and funding losses, in Connecticut as in other states. Starting in January, HR-1 requires people covered by the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion, HUSKY Part D In Connecticut, to prove that they are working, volunteering, in school, caring for a fragile person, or a few other exemptions to keep their coverage. Eligibility will need to be reviewed every six months, twice as often as now.

According to RAND, the new work requirements will be responsible for 79,800 people losing coverage and half the total funding cuts in Connecticut.

Source: State-Level Impacts of Key Medicaid Provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, RAND, 2/26/2026

Medicaid provisions in HR-1 that impact Connecticut include:

ProvisionWhat it doesWho is impacted
Work requirementMembers must work for pay or fit other exemptionsHUSKY Part D
Provider taxesRemoves reimbursed state taxes on hospitals to increase federal fundingAll
Good faith waiverFed government won’t forgive good faith errorsAll
Qualified immigrantsLegally residing asylees and refugees no longer eligibleAsylees and refugees
RedeterminationsState must review eligibility twice as often, every 6 monthsHUSKY Part D

For more info on HR-1’s health provisions, go here.