Federal changes are coming into view – it’s not good, but there is hope

It’s hard to keep up with the updates about the potential impact of Congressional healthcare proposals. Just when there is a glimmer of light, it gets worse. I won’t blame anyone for not reading any further.

For those of us who can’t look away, here are two new analyses of note and two glimmers of hope.

The Urban Institute and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation have new estimates of the impact of the House bill cuts/changes as well as allowing the ACA health insurance subsidies to expire, by state. The bottom line –  Connecticut will lose $9.1 billion in healthcare spending over the next ten years. Hospitals will be hit hardest losing $3.6 billion.

Source: Reconciliation Bill Effects on States’ Healthcare Spending and Uncompensated Care, Urban Institute and KFF, 6/13/2025, https://www.rwjf.org/en/insights/our-research/2025/06/reconciliation-bill-effects-on-states-healthcare-spending-and-uncompensated-care.html

The other estimate is from a new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine predicting that each year, if the bill passes:

  • 7.6 million more Americans will become uninsured
  • 909 thousand fewer Americans will be in good health
  • 1.6 million fewer Americans will get the care they need
  • 1.3 million fewer Americans will get the prescriptions they need
  • 780 thousand fewer Americans will get blood cholesterol checks
  • 776 thousand fewer Americans will get Pap tests
  • 1.2 million more Americans will have unpaid medical bills
  • 1 million more Americans will skip paying bills and/or borrow to cover medical bills

In encouraging news, two new polls find that Americans, including Trump supporters, overwhelmingly want Congress to protect Medicaid from cuts. Maybe this just won’t happen.

Update 6/17/2025: Yet another poll finds Americans support Medicaid, across sectors and groups.