A new analysis by the Urban Institute finds that per capita caps on federal Medicaid spending under the American Health Care Act (AHCA) would reduce federal Medicaid funding to states by $457 billion or 9.8% from 2019 through 2028. If the bill passes, Connecticut stands to lose $7 billion or 10.9% of federal Medicaid funds. To fully offset the loss of federal funds, Connecticut would have to increase our state Medicaid budget by 13.6%. The state is now facing a $1.7 billion deficit for next year, under current law with the ACA intact. The authors project that use of the AHCA’s proposed trend factor will disadvantage children and adult Medicaid categories most. The analysis models the impact of the AHCA as originally proposed. The bill is being negotiated in the House as of this writing.